where he detailed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu unbridled plans to transform the Agricultural sector. Though a minister of Agriculture is yet to be appointed, this appears to be the vision of the President for the sector which whoever becomes the minister will carry out in Agriculture
I must commend Mr President for Including Agriculture within the purview of the National Security Council. I have long argued that food is a security issue and no serious country will leave the production of its major food staple to dynamics outside of its control. Food inflation when left unchecked can lead to civil unrest and other agitations as we have seen across different historical periods. On this note, I must appreciate Mr President for making food a security issue. However, I was a bit alarmed when the statement read that the President arrived at his agricultural vision after consulting with stakeholders in the sector. Who are these stakeholders or are we still clinging to pseudo/portfolio farmers with no farms?
Another worrisome tone I read in that statement is that the government is yet to see Agriculture as a business which needs to thrive on basic fundamentals. Given, food is a basic need that the government must have interest in but the process of producing this food must be treated as a business so that it would be efficient. The Government is no good at running businesses or allocating resources. Government should provide the funds and allow the private sector to allocate.
Let’s look at some of the Plans outlined by the President:
Release of Fertilisers and Grains to farmers and Household: While it is commendable that fertilisers would be distributed to farmers it should be noted that the FG blending plants do not have sufficient fertilisers to distribute. Unfortunately, local manufacturers such as Indorama, Notore, and Dangote are so obsessed with dollar earnings that they focus on the international market hence creating local scarcity and with scarcity increase in prices. The President must work with local manufacturers of fertilisers to retool their business objectives. Local demands must be met before export. If the prices of fertilisers come down, farmers will be able to afford them at will and will not be dependent on the FG to access fertilisers
The President during his speech outlining palliatives to cushion the effect of Subsidy removal stated that 200,000MT of grains would be released to households to cushion the effect of the policy. There is little information on the quantity of our grain reserves. I do not think they are significant, because if there were, it could have been used to curtail the skyrocketing demand of grains in the market. Nigeria production of grain is yet to meet local demand and this is one of the major reasons why the price of grains keep skyrocketing. A bag of maize is at an all time high at over N40,000/100kg bag. Last year it was around N17000 a bag at this time. This points to one thing: We have no significant grain reserve. Fertlisers hover above N20,000/bag
Irrigation of Farmlands and Development of River Basin: It is necessary that farmers cultivate all year to enable availability and affordability of crops. Over 80% of farmers in Nigeria are smallholder farmers and lack the financial wherewithal to irrigate their crops. It will be interesting to see how the FG plans to do this on a sustainable level. I think it is time for Nigeria to transition from smallholder farming to large corporations with firms with capacity to cultivate over 100 hectares of land coming into the agricultural business- This firm will be much more organised, literate, have excellent managerial experience and the finance to make investments in technology and irrigation. The FG should have a timeline to reduce Small-holder participation in agricultural production by 30% in the next 10 years. Developing the River Basins and associated Dams which have been abandoned by governments in the past will be a welcome development as it will be beneficial to the fish farmers, which unfortunately did not receive a mention in the press release, thus providing cheap proteins for Nigerians. The Private sector should drive this as funding will be a challenge to the government
Creation of Agricultural Commodity Boards: The FG has no business creating any commodity boardsto fix prices it will be counterproductive. However, the FG can assist existing private Agro-commodity exchanges like Afex to expand and encourage more to come on board so that farmers can lock trade with forward contracts and those literate enough can hedge against losses using the derivatives market at the exchanges, which to the best of my knowledge do not exist in Nigeria at the moment.
Improving Security on Farmlands; This is very necessary as insecurity in the farming belt has forced farmers to flee rural communities. Government must protect farmers so that they can feed us. Another thing to put our eyes on is the insecurity in Niger and Chad. Nigeria benefits tremendously from the closeness of these two countries as it relates to agriculture. Many of the agro commodities from the two countries end up in Nigeria. While we try to resolve the insecurity in Nigeria we need peace in Niger and Chad
Activation of Land Banks, Land Clearing, Mechanisation: Increasing the arable land is a good initiative, but it should be noted that this is not the reason why we are not producing enough food . The real issue is that the productivity in our farms is low. The yield/ha for many of the crops produced in Nigeria is far below that of other nations. For instance, Nigeria produces at most 3 tons /ha for rice while in Egypt it is over 7 tons/ha, for maize it is 1.5tons/ha in Nigeria while in Egypt it is 8 tons/ha. Government must deal with the issues around low productivity before embarking on further land clearing. Mechanisation is also a welcome idea, the key question is how do you involve small-holder farmers who represent the majority of the farming population in mechanisation? Note; Mechanisation is not just land tilling and harrowing
Provision of Concessionary for Agro-Stakeholder: I would suggest that the Tinubu Administration break away from the past where the CBN or other government agencies are in charge of distributing agricultural loans. This has turned to be inefficient and corruption laden and only beneficial to political farmers who have connections. I will Suggest that the funds meant for farmers at the lower spectrum be provided to two or three Microfinance Banks in a local government or Senatorial Zone subject to the rate of agricultural activities in that area. The concessionary funds should be provided to the microfinance banks at a rate not exceeding 4% and the MFB provided to the farmers with no more than 5% spread. This way, the onus will be on the MFB to repay, hence ensuring that due diligence is done before any loan is issued. Government must also monitor that these low interest loans are not to be invested by the MFBs into other investments except farming or given to those who are not farmers. This is why it is necessary that accurate data exists and GIS maps are used to identify each farm.
Other solutions muted includes removing trade bottlenecks to improve export and the cost of transporting agro commodities
Conclusion: In an earlier publication https://medium.com/@emekaobi2035/what-tinubu-must-do-to-revive-agriculture-in-nigeria-1f6a3278b8e6 i did set an agenda for the Tinubu’s administration in Agriculture where i advised that the States and Local government should drive the agricultural policies suitable to their locality and need. It appears that the FG is still going to focus on a centralised agricultural policy for the country. Needs and climate differs depending on location and rural sociology, while it is convenient to cultivate grains in the North, it is not that convenient in the south due to lots of factors. However, focusing on grains and on certain conditions will not factor the peculiarities of farming in the south, making Southern farmers disadvantaged and unable to access FG loans for farmers. There was also no mention of livestock farming and the poultry and fish farmers who produce most of our proteins appear not to be part of this vision.
It is still early days but we hope Tinubu gets it right this time in Agriculture.